A decision-support model for the stocker cattle business: when to buy, when to sell, when to hedge, and what to do when a pen goes wrong — built on real economics, honest about every number.
Most stocker operations run on gut feel and a spreadsheet — which hides the three things that quietly sink them: the price slide (heavier cattle sell for less per pound), cost of gain versus what the market will pay, and managing a whole herd by exception. This model makes those visible.
It's built the way I approach every engagement: forensic-first. The numbers are real economics, every input is honest about its source, and the model tells you how sure it is. It informs decisions — it doesn't make them.
Enter a lot the way you'd buy it — see the price slide, the all-in cost of gain, your true breakeven, and whether the market will lock you a profit. The actual instrument.
Run a 500-head operation through a season. Each turn brings a decision — you make the call, the model names the risk you're carrying and shows the dollar consequence.
Every input, its source, and its freshness — real feeds named (USDA, CME), an honest flag on anything not yet connected. A number is only as good as its source.
The decision, in the order it happens — one animal, the market, the weather, the herd, the risk, the daily problems. Plain English, honest boundaries.
The Spread is one example. If you're planning a transition, a sale, or just want an independent read on where your business value hides — that's the work.